Inductively Sound Arguments_HD.mp4 – YouTube(1).mp4

Now, we’ll have a few words
about inductive soundness. Uh…we know this is
an inductive argument. For one reason, we have
the word “probably” slyly put in there right here
by me in the last minute. The conclusion’s
a prediction. If a conclusion’s
a prediction, you have good reason
to believe it’ll be inductive. You don’t know things about the
future with total certainty the way you would
with deductive arguments. That isn’t true
all the time. The word “probably” helps. Once we know it’s
an inductive argument, we want to ask is it
a strong or weak argument. I think in this case,
we’d agree it’s strong. If the premise was true, the conclusion would have
good reason–not certainty– but good reason
to believe the conclusion. If it snowed for the past
ten years in Canada, that gives me
good reason to believe it’s gonna snow
next year. Not guaranteed, not certainty,
but good reason. That’s where
I’d bet my money. Better than 50% chance. Okay, once we figure out
the logic’s good– that is, it’s
a strong argument– we want…that doesn’t make it
a great argument. A lot of the logically good
arguments are still bad. We also want
to have true premises. So for the argument
to be ultimately good, to be inductively sound,
it needs to be strong and have all the premises
be true. So we look
at the premise. Has it indeed snowed in Canada
the last ten years? Yeah, Canada’s up there
at the top end of North America. It snows there
quite a bit. If the premise is true, we have good reason
to believe the conclusion. That makes it strong. And the premise
is actually true. That coupled
with it being strong makes it
an inductively sound argument. Some people will say
it’s a cogent argument. Same thing. If I have an inductive argument,
I could do two things. Ask is it strong or weak? And if it’s strong,
ask is it inductively sound? If it’s a weak argument, it’s automatically
inductively unsound, because all
inductively sound arguments need to be strong
and have true premises. Once we get good at logic, we’re probably
gonna be able to tell if the argument’s
strong or weak pretty easily. Usually, where some
of the interesting discussions and debate comes in is whether
the premises are true or not. Um…we’ll see how that works
as the class continues.

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